Saugeen Conservation has issued a Watershed Conditions Statement for water safety, warning residents across the Saugeen watershed to prepare for changing and potentially hazardous conditions over the coming days.
Above-seasonal temperatures combined with anticipated rainfall are expected to drive rising water levels and increase the risk of ice breakup on rivers and other water bodies. The statement applies to all municipalities within the Saugeen watershed, including Arran-Elderslie, Brockton, Chatsworth, Grey Highlands, Hanover, Howick, Morris-Turnberry, South Bruce, Huron-Kinloss, Kincardine, Minto, Wellington North, Saugeen Shores, Southgate, and West Grey.
Weather forecasts indicate mild conditions to continue through Saturday, January 10. Overnight temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, with daytime highs reaching around 11 degrees Celsius on Friday. Rainfall totals of approximately 10 to 15 millimetres are anticipated from late Thursday into Friday, adding to runoff concerns.
With ground conditions frozen and already saturated, much of the snowmelt and rainfall is expected to flow directly into local waterways rather than soaking into the soil. As a result, water levels are likely to rise quickly, increasing the chance that ice on rivers and streams will weaken and break apart.
Saugeen Conservation staff have identified a significant ice jam on the Main Saugeen River near Bruce Road 17, west of Burgoyne. Members of the public are being urged to stay away from the river downstream of this location, as the ice jam could release suddenly if water levels increase and warmer air further weakens the ice. Officials note that ice jams may also exist in other parts of the watershed.
Residents and recreational users are advised to exercise extreme caution near all watercourses. Fast-moving water, unstable ice, high water levels and slippery stream banks are expected to create dangerous conditions in many areas.
While widespread flooding is not anticipated, some rivers and streams may reach or exceed their banks, potentially causing minor flooding in low-lying locations. Municipal crews are encouraged to keep an eye on drainage systems, particularly where snow and ice may be blocking catch basins.
Saugeen Conservation will continue to monitor conditions closely and will issue updates if the situation changes. The current statement remains in effect until 9 a.m. on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, unless revised earlier.
Residents who experience flooding are encouraged to report it through the Saugeen Conservation website. Further information is available from the authority’s flood forecasting and warning coordinator.
